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Will Electric Vehicles (EVs) have more staying power this time around, or will they disappear again?
“Records show that in 1900, US companies manufactured, in all, about 4,200 automobiles: 40 percent were steam-powered, 38 percent were electric, and 22 percent were ICE.”
By 1900, there was still competition between different powertrains. Steam-powered or External Combustion Engines apparently were leading the market, Electric Vehicles (EVs) were following, and Internal Combustion Engines (gasoline vehicles) were still far behind. Cities were favoring EVs since this was a noiseless and fume-free mode of transportation. However, Henry Ford’s Model T and its low price point pushed the consumers and therefore the industry towards fossil fuel. In hindsight, we need to consider this a big mistake.
Steam cars could be quite inconvenient. Just imagine waiting 30 minutes for enough steam to get your coffee and donut in the morning. By 1920, the electric vehicle was only used by a few trucking companies, but was very much liked for streetcars and trams. Regular automobiles were now powered by internal combustion engines based on fossil fuel. The invention of the electric starter ensured that all further research focused on the internal combustion engine. Research into battery technology for electric mobility basically stopped at lead acid.
The Problem with Gasoline
But internal combustion engines (ICE) based on gasoline or diesel always had one huge problem – other than the noise, the air pollution, and the GHG emissions, that is. Petrol isn’t renewable energy. Period.
That might not matter much to oil-rich countries like the US, but few other countries have access to that much fossil fuel. And that can create unwanted dependencies. Wars have been started, won, and lost because of those dependencies.
It wasn’t Henry Ford‘s main intention to create a monopoly for the oil industry. He was working with Thomas Edison on a cheaper electric model as well. He also seemed to favor a competition between petrol (non-renewable and favoring a few monopolies) and ethanol (renewable). He and Theodore Roosevelt (President from 1901 to 1909) would have preferred to use alcohol produced by small family farmers. It would have boosted agriculture, improved impoverished rural regions, and reduced the grip Standard Oil had on the country already. Instead, Standard Oil was broken up in 1911. Needless to say, the break-up didn’t exactly hurt Exxon, Chevron, Marathon, and ConocoPhillips in the long run. The monopoly still seems to be in place today.
Only a few countries are oil-rich, but many have access to electricity or can produce ethanol. You would think the oil-poor countries would have pushed for vehicles and infrastructure that could better compete with fossil fuel. But only a few really did.
For those who did, the wake-up call was the 1970s oil shortage. Some of these oil-poor countries kept looking into ways to get away from fossil fuel:
- Some countries favored mixing ethanol and gasoline (Brazil, Malawi, Sweden).
- Nowadays, a lot of European countries and several US states are providing E10 or E85 mixes for flexible-fuel vehicles (FFVs).
- Germany, at various stages, played around with hydrogen fuel cells.
- Big Asian cities (like Tokyo or Singapore) favored electrified public transportation.
- Cities like Copenhagen or Amsterdam favor active transportation.
- Cities like Vienna, Berlin, and Paris are aiming for a healthy mix. Actually, most modern cities now do.
1947 Japan – EVs after World War II
One country interested in pursuing electric vehicles was Japan. They did so after WWII because of scarcity. And then again, because of the oil crisis in the 1970s.
- 1947: Tachikawa Aircraft merges with Nissan and develops the Tama, a small truck capable of going 34 km/h.
- 1948: They follow up with the Tama Junior for people with a similar speed and a 65 km (40-mile) range.
- 1949: Nissan introduces the Tama Senior.
But various political developments (Korean War, oil prices, price of batteries, etc.) favored the gasoline vehicles more and the electric car disappeared again
1970s Japan – EVs after the Oil Embargo
- 1971: This time, the Japanese government started to push for more environmentally friendly transport.
- 1973: The oil embargo of 1973 and the oil crisis in 1979 pushed efforts along.
- 1980s: Several manufacturers were designing cars with a range of 80-90 km (60 miles) and 60 km/h (40 mph) – perfect for city driving.
- 1990s: Motorcycle company Yamaha introduces its first reliable and powerful e-bike motor.
- 1997: Toyota introduces the first mass-produced hybrid, the Toyota Prius
In hindsight, oil-poor and manufacturing-rich Japan should have favored electric vehicles much sooner. Japan can create electricity on its own (nuclear, wind, solar, wave, hydro), but needs to buy petrodollars to then import oil from Saudi Arabia. From the perspective of that country’s political leadership, this looks like a failure of vision.
U.S. Futurama Concept
Even oil-rich USA was working on a revival of the electric vehicle – this had to do with an environmental awakening and the problems cities had with visible air pollution. Plus, GM’s research department always seemed to be working on something futuristic and often with federal grants:
- 1964-66: GM showcased its Electrovair and then the Electrovair II
- 1967: Industrialist Henry Ford counters with the Comuta. Unfortunately, the prospect of seeing millions of those on city streets never came to fruition.
- 1975: President Gerald Ford signs CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) to increase the overall fuel efficiency of American cars.
- 1976: Congress passed the Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Research, Development, and Demonstration Act to promote EV development due to the oil crisis.
- 1989: The American Electric Vehicle (GM Impact) concept is unveiled, which later influences the design of the GM EV1.
- 1992: The Energy Policy Act (President George H.W. Bush) is enacted, promoting cleaner, more fuel-efficient vehicles.
- 1996: GM introduces the EV1 with a lead-acid battery and a 50-mile range. It was small, had a drag coefficient of 0.14 (Cybertruck: >0.34)
- 1997: AC Propulsion Systems takes Federal grants and builds three fun little electric sports cars called tzero. This one also had lead-acid batteries, and they noticed the acceleration of 0-60 in 4 seconds.
- 1997: The tzero was a concept car, and they also had that no-charging-station problem solved by having a towable Honda Generator on a trailer to generate power to get you past the 80-mile range limit. The tzero also had generative braking and Vehicle-to-Grid capabilities.
- 1999: Ford shows off their Norwegian ThinkCity Minicar and a Ranger EV, which quickly disappeared again after 2002.
- 1999: GM kills the electric car because each car still costs $1,000,000 to make.
- In 2003, California weakened its rules on GHG emissions, and efforts to switch to more EVs died down.
China
Of all the countries mentioned so far, China might have been the one building the most electric vehicles in production starting in the 1960s.
- 1960s: China starts research into electric vehicles with two wheels – e-bikes and e-mopeds.
- 1980s: E-bikes are becoming more common. Production reaches 10,000-20,000 per year.
- But the typical problems of EVs have still not been solved: crude battery technology, range and charging, high price.
- 1991: The Chinese government recognized e-bike development as a technology goal.
- 1998: China built some 40,000 e-bikes. Within less than 10 years, that number grew to 30 million.
- China has been building e-bikes ever since and has never looked back.
Maybe, as a little sidenote, we should mention that a battery company named BYD was founded in China around 1995.
Conclusion
This is the era of lots of small stuff happening. Only a few advances in research have been made, and most efforts have died down again, which makes the 20th century almost an forgettable era in terms of EVs.
Why oil-poor car manufacturing countries like Japan, Germany, France, and Italy kept favoring Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) seems like a mystery now. Few countries have oil, but all countries can create electricity. Electric power can be generated from various sources, including water, sun, wind, waves, geothermal, and nuclear power plants, and each country can determine or at least influence the pricing. But oil needs to be bought on the world market and in Petrodollars. And oil-rich countries are setting the rules and the price. And they can crash economies, their own and others. This was felt dearly in 1973, in 1979 and again, just recently, when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Now that the EV technology is as advanced as it is, oil-poor countries like Japan, Germany, Korea, France, and China would be foolish to go backwards. They will ramp up research, technology, and infrastructure even more. And if the US wants to be left behind and keep its reliance on fossil fuel and coal, so be it. But for these other countries, there is just no reasonable path to going back.
And especially since the US Oil Industry is calculating that the Energy Return of Investment (EROI) for gasoline might dip into the negative, also referred to as “Energy Cannibalism“, by 2035.
More Information:
- When the Stanley Steamer was car of the future
- WP: Henry Ford – the father of Gasohol
- History of Japanese Electric Cars
- Standard Oil and its successors
- Ford: Electric Cars: Past, Present and Future
