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Winter is quickly approaching, and as the weather gets colder concerns around respiratory illnesses like the flu and Covid-19 grow. So far, local health officials say recent spikes are consistent with seasonal expectations.
Public health officials use wastewater, hospital visits and other data points to watch how these viruses trend throughout the community. Wastewater data from Santa Clara and San Mateo counties, as well as data from WastewaterSCAN run by Stanford University, shows influenza A trending upward over the past few months and Covid-19 coming down from a late summer peak. Public health officials say these trends aren’t out of the norm.
“We’re not overly concerned about these increases, it’s consistent with the Bay Area and with the state overall,” San Mateo County Health Officer Dr. Kismet Baldwin-Santana told this news organization.
The county’s respiratory virus tracking data combines sources from across the county, while WastewaterSCAN shows more localized information based on specific sewage treatment plants. Across San Mateo County, cases of influenza A have gone up, reaching a “high” level of prevalence in wastewater at the end of October, with about 200 emergency department visits. Baldwin-Santana noted that Covid-19 had large increases in the summer, with a large jump in late September and early October, but has trended downward for the past few weeks.
WastewaterSCAN caught these trends as well; it collects hyperlocal data from Silicon Valley Clean Water, a sewage treatment center that serves Redwood City, Menlo Park, Woodside, San Carlos, Belmont and the West Bay Sanitary District. Covid-19 prevalence in wastewater spiked on Sept. 10, and while it continued to trend downward through October, it jumped again near the beginning of November before falling once more. Influenza A has been steadily climbing since September, and has historically peaked around early January. But in recent years those peaks began around November.
Baldwin-Santana said influenza A’s early start has been one of the only deviations from normal, but “just because it’s a little earlier in the season doesn’t mean it’s worse than other seasons.”
“The rate of rise has not been significantly different so far in this season, but we’ll see,” she said. “We’re early, and the season really goes into the spring time, March and April, so we’ll see what happens over the next few months.”
Santa Clara County experienced a similar situation, with influenza A cases growing earlier this year than last year, according to a statement from the county’s public health department. The county’s respiratory virus data dashboard shows influenza A beginning to steadily climb in September and a prominent jump in Covid-19 cases in mid-September. Covid-19 cases have been steadily decreasing but staying high since then.
WastewaterSCAN measures Palo Alto’s sewage treatment center, which serves Palo Alto, Stanford University, Mountain View, the East Palo Alto Sanitary District, Los Altos and Los Altos Hills. Their data also shows Covid-19 reaching a peak on Sept. 25, decreasing throughout October and spiking again in November.
The Santa Clara County Public Health Department urged residents to take precautions in the statement, including getting up to date vaccines for Covid and flu, maintaining personal hygiene, staying home when sick and seeking medical help if symptoms are severe. Santa Clara County maintains a list of low cost vaccination clinics.
“When wastewater levels of Covid and flu are high, each person is encouraged to take extra precautions to keep from getting sick and to help slow the spread of these viruses to others, especially when people will be gathering for winter holidays,” the statement reads.
Baldwin-Santana echoed those suggestions and emphasized the importance of personal hygiene to stop the spread of germs — avoid touching your face, covering coughs and sneezes, and washing your hands.
About 34% of San Mateo County residents have been vaccinated against the flu this season, which Baldwin-Santana said was “not great, but not terrible,” while the rate for Covid-19 vaccinations is almost half that at 18%. She urged residents to get vaccinated for these respiratory viruses and said county partners are operating free vaccine clinics throughout the month.
“We could start to see another increase, but everyone can stay prepared or stay safe and prevent as much as they can,” Baldwin-Santana said.
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