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Peninsula Realtors from left to right: Elyce Barca, Compass Real Estate; Brian Chancellor, Christie’s International Real Estate, Sereno; Denise Welsh, Compass Real Estate. Courtesy photos.
Despite the exclusive nature of the Midpeninsula’s expensive housing market, it is hard to avoid all national and international impacts on local homebuyers and sellers.
The decision in early April by President Trump to assess his on-again, off-again minimum 10% tariffs on goods from scores of countries around the globe — and far higher, up to well over 100% on goods from China and other nations — is likely to have an impact on the local housing market, according to Midpeninsula Realtors who weighed-in on the topic.
His erratic implementation — imposing the tariffs, then subsequently delaying some of them — is not particularly conducive to creating a stable environment for a vigorous spring market, they said.
While buyers at the higher end of the market have been actively pursuing luxury properties in excess of $10 million so far this spring, many more seeking entry-level condos and townhomes, or single-family homes below the $10 million level are nervously monitoring the volatile, roller-coaster stock market’s impact on their savings portfolios, the Realtors said.
Here are perspectives from three industry leaders specializing in the Midpeninsula housing market on how tariffs could impact buyers and sellers. Their responses have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Q: Do you think the Trump tariffs will have an impact on the Midpeninsula housing market this spring?
“Yes, I do. This situation creates a level of uncertainty and even some fear in the marketplace, but the extent of the impact really remains to be seen.”
Denise Welsh, associate sales manager and Realtor in the Los Altos office of Compass Real Estate
“It’s likely there will be an impact to some extent, but no one really knows for sure how significant. I’m concerned there will be continued volatility in the market. If it hits the tech industry, it could become more significant as buyers may start pulling back as they look at their shrinking portfolios.”
Elyse Barca, Realtor in the Menlo Park office of Compass Real Estate
“It’s too early to say exactly what the effects might be, but the overall market wants stability and predictability. People in this market are very resilient.”
Brian Chancellor, Realtor in the Palo Alto office of Christie’s International Real Estate, Sereno
Q: What are some likely tactics from prospective buyers to cope with the current situation?
“Some will turn the value of equities into real property. We are seeing strong action at the higher end of the market. Activity is a lot slower at this point at the lower end, as the market for condos and townhomes is still challenging. It is a market segment affected much more by inflation and higher interest rates.”
Brian Chancellor, Realtor in the Palo Alto office of Christie’s International Real Estate, Sereno
“We will see some prospective buyers take money out of the stock market and put it into real estate”
Denise Welsh, associate sales manager and Realtor in the Los Altos office of Compass Real Estate
Q: Do you foresee any changes on mortgage interest rates in the short term?
“That could have a positive impact on the market if (the tariffs) cause interest rates to go down. We will see what happens.”
Brian Chancellor, Realtor in the Palo Alto office of Christie’s International Real Estate, Sereno
“I’ve heard people say perhaps interest rates could come down as a result. Things have been very stable at the 6% level in the market recently. We’ll see. It’s TBD at this point.”
Elyse Barca, Realtor in the Menlo Park office of Compass Real Estate
Q: Have there been other developments potentially affecting the local housing market this year?
“I don’t think a lot of people are aware yet of changes that have occurred with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (mortgage loans). Going forward,(under a new policy adopted in March by the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development for the widely popular and accessible mortgages) these mortgage loans will no longer be available to non-permanent residents, only permanent residents. That will affect people in the local market.”
Denise Welsh, associate sales manager and Realtor in the Los Altos office of Compass Real Estate
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