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Redwood Shores resident Neal Andersen was reminded of the world’s rising sea levels when he watched ocean water breach his neighborhood’s levee last winter.
On Jan. 3, 2026, he saw a bicyclist push forward as high waves splashed over the levee’s trail. Later that month, water lapped at the top of the trail again during an extra-high tide event, known colloquially as a “king tide.”
“The water is only going to go one way, and it’s up,” said Andersen, who sits on the Redwood Shores Community Association’s board of directors.
Sea level rise is a constant worry for the area, and while there are projects underway to improve protections, this winter is expected to test existing infrastructure limits. National Weather Service meteorologists have been forecasting strong-to-very strong El Niño conditions this winter. These conditions, marked by unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean, normally mean stronger winter storms in California. The San Mateo County Board of Supervisors declared El Niño to be a local emergency earlier in October, so preparations could proceed with fewer bureaucratic hurdles.
Andersen is most concerned about storm surges. The California Coastal Commission, a government agency charged with protecting the state’s coastline, is expecting 10 king tide events this winter. Those could coincide with storm surges, as it’s too early to predict when the winter storms might hit, if at all.
Redwood City overall sits on a collection of marshes and has the highest risk of severe coastal flooding, according to 2025 data from Climate Central. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has tracked the region’s sea level rising steadily over the past few decades.
This year’s El Niño risks have shone a spotlight on these issues. National Weather Service meteorologist Brian Garcia said they’ll have a more accurate understanding of whether a storm is coming and where it might land as it approaches. But of the various potential impacts from a large storm, he’s most concerned about how the ocean will react and whether coastal communities are ready.
“I think we’re going to hit water levels, sea water level height, that we just haven’t seen before, and I don’t know what’s going to happen with that,” Garcia said. “It’s hard to say with any certainty what’s going to happen, because it’s never happened before.”
Higher tides and storm surges could bring water into neighborhoods, but it could also prevent rainwater from draining into the bay as it flows downhill. District 1 Redwood City Council member Jeff Gee said rainwater from the mountains drains in the city’s southern coastal neighborhoods. While his district, which contains Redwood Shores, is at risk from sea level rise, the neighborhoods with historically more flooding have been in District 3, in Friendly Acres and surrounding areas.
He said Redwood Shores has extra flood protection from newer and extensive infrastructure. For example, the lagoon is a stormwater detention basin, so Gee said the city can lower the lagoon’s water level to catch extra stormwater. The city’s southern neighborhoods are older and don’t have the same infrastructure.
“The infrastructure wasn’t planned to take all the stormwater from the hills,” Gee said. “When there’s a high tide, the flood gate will close, but that water from the hills is still coming so it has to go somewhere.”
District 3 Redwood City Council member Isabella Chu, who lives in Friendly Acres, said she’s had several inches of water in her backyard during storms, and flooding has blocked multiple roads. She said the mobile home communities east of Highway 101 are especially vulnerable to property damage.
“If there’s really bad flooding, that could really affect them, those historically have been the communities most affected by flooding,” Chu said. “Our police, fire, public works, we’re all on high alert and they have a plan.”
The city has published preparedness tips for residents and opened a sandbag pickup station at the Public Works Services Yard, 1400 Broadway Street. The city also launched an Adopt-a-Drain program to reduce flood risks by mobilizing residents to help keep storm drains clear of debris.
To help the city clear debris from storm drains, Chu asked residents to move cars or basketball hoops off the street wherever possible to give sweepers better access.
Although Redwood Shores has infrastructure protecting the area from floods, Redwood Shores Community Association co-president Carol Ford said streets occasionally flood when water can’t exit through the storm drains, whether they’re blocked with debris or the tide’s too high. That becomes a problem in a neighborhood with only two roads out. She added that she’s worried that harsh waves from storm surges and high tides could further erode the banks around a capped landfill beneath Redwood LIFE, pulling toxins from the landfill into the bay.
The uncertainty and variety of factors in this year’s storm surges give Andersen pause. Basins around the levee that had been full of water last winter were now mostly empty, and he said he didn’t know how the infrastructure would fare through this year’s storms.
“The El Niño effect this winter, they’re predicting it’s going to be significant, and it’s not going away,” Andersen said. “I think it’s gonna catch some people by surprise.”
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